Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231 – 155.58

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.4 ±15.9

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 119.52Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9627Yellow Haze

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -5.5Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 116.98Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.4 ±15

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 55.14Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 70.24Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 30.2Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 364, 9627, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

231 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 364, 9627, 744

Auto

45.4 19%

Teleop

143.0 61%

Endgame

44.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9313, 10219, 7431

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9313, 10219, 7431

Auto

24.9 16%

Teleop

91.5 59%

Endgame

39.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231pts

Blue projected score155.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.4
Score range: 124–263
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 176.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.4Season APEX275.4

45.4Auto24.9

143Teleop91.5

44.9Endgame39.1

46Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	20
teleop	227	57
endgame	21	50
foul	0	0
total	297	127

Result

Final score

297 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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