Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.82 – 0.43

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.9 ±19.3

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 101.59Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10159PHS MAC-ros

Provisional

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 13.17Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9493TechWasps923

Provisional

Season APEX 19.2Event APEX 17.06Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.2 ±16.8

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX -5.52Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -13.45Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9720Metal Head Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 19.4Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5410, 10159, 9493

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5410, 10159, 9493

Auto

23.0 18%

Teleop

65.6 52%

Endgame

37.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10162, 5816, 9720

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10162, 5816, 9720

Auto

10.7 100%

Teleop

-7.5 0%

Endgame

2.5 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.8pts

Blue projected score0.4pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.4
Score range: -32–164
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.9Season APEX339.2

23Auto10.7

65.6Teleop-7.5

37Endgame2.5

6Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	12
teleop	21	7
endgame	50	12
foul	5	0
total	109	31

Result

Final score

109 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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