Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.76 – 229.6

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±18.2

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 79.79Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3242ILLUMICATS

Provisional

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 45.29Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -21.32Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.5 ±16.9

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 7.79Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3502Octo(PI)Rates

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 2.02Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 219.79Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6722, 3242, 10981

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6722, 3242, 10981

Auto

18.1 17%

Teleop

52.1 50%

Endgame

33.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4622, 3502, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4622, 3502, 2992

Auto

50.8 22%

Teleop

132.3 59%

Endgame

43.0 19%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.8pts

Blue projected score229.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.8
Score range: 72–262
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 178.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.4Season APEX409.5

18.1Auto50.8

52.1Teleop132.3

33.3Endgame43

45Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	68
teleop	18	151
endgame	1	68
foul	0	15
total	29	302

Result

Final score

29 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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