Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.75 – 193.69

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.6 ±17.7

9720Metal Head Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 23.77Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 38.05Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 68.93Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.1 ±15

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 105.9Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 48.95Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 38.84Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9720, 21, 6722

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9720, 21, 6722

Auto

19.1 16%

Teleop

57.4 47%

Endgame

46.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4013, 5276, 9313

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4013, 5276, 9313

Auto

28.6 15%

Teleop

107.8 57%

Endgame

51.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.8pts

Blue projected score193.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.9
Score range: 94–231
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 206.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.6Season APEX273.1

19.1Auto28.6

57.4Teleop107.8

46.5Endgame51.4

13Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	71	136
endgame	60	45
foul	0	0
total	144	203

Result

Final score

144 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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