Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.53 – 153.7

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±16.9

10471Gamarobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 24.9Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 56.55Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 11.08Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.5 ±16.5

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 71.95Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 74.09Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6145War Eagles

Provisional

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 7.66Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10471, 5472, 10228

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10471, 5472, 10228

Auto

3.3 4%

Teleop

27.3 33%

Endgame

53.1 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4576, 86, 6145

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4576, 86, 6145

Auto

31.5 20%

Teleop

73.6 47%

Endgame

51.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.5pts

Blue projected score153.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.2
Score range: 61–186
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.7Season APEX315.5

3.3Auto31.5

27.3Teleop73.6

53.1Endgame51.3

83Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	41
teleop	16	116
endgame	0	34
foul	0	5
total	33	196

Result

Final score

33 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree