Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.98 – 301.35

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

279 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.3 ±18.8

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 62.75Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10996SRC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -9.15Rank 45Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 50.38Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.6 ±16

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 35.16Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 174.63Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 91.56Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7130, 10996, 801

/ 100 compat

Projected

104 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7130, 10996, 801

Auto

16.9 17%

Teleop

61.8 63%

Endgame

19.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4118, 233, 8841

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4118, 233, 8841

Auto

27.7 9%

Teleop

177.7 59%

Endgame

94.7 32%

Strengths

· 233 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104pts

Blue projected score301.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -197.4
Score range: 72–333
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.3Season APEX453.6

16.9Auto27.7

61.8Teleop177.7

19.5Endgame94.7

121Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	19
teleop	160	205
endgame	77	121
foul	0	0
total	279	345

Result

Final score

279 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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