Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.92 – 95.46

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.5 ±16.8

3242ILLUMICATS

Provisional

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 32.46Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX -26.44Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 141.9Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.3 ±14.5

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 9.1Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 102.52Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -16.16Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3242, 10162, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3242, 10162, 108

Auto

58.9 40%

Teleop

63.2 43%

Endgame

24.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10228, 744, 10981

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10228, 744, 10981

Auto

22.5 23%

Teleop

49.3 51%

Endgame

24.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.9pts

Blue projected score95.5pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.5
Score range: 64–179
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 174.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.5Season APEX269.3

58.9Auto22.5

63.2Teleop49.3

24.6Endgame24.3

20Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	21
teleop	174	33
endgame	16	75
foul	0	0
total	251	129

Result

Final score

251 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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