Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.9 – 156.55

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.2 ±20.5

10159PHS MAC-ros

Provisional

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 23.12Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 59.47Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10996SRC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 1.31Rank 45Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.4 ±17.2

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 56.27Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10471Gamarobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 24.35Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 75.93Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10159, 9313, 10996

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10159, 9313, 10996

Auto

9.4 11%

Teleop

47.4 54%

Endgame

31.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 801, 10471, 86

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 801, 10471, 86

Auto

26.0 17%

Teleop

84.6 56%

Endgame

40.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.9pts

Blue projected score156.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.6
Score range: 52–189
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 176.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.2Season APEX310.4

9.4Auto26

47.4Teleop84.6

31.3Endgame40.6

76Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	38
teleop	15	119
endgame	11	29
foul	15	0
total	48	186

Result

Final score

48 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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