Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.56 – 163.75

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.7 ±19.4

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 76.29Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3502Octo(PI)Rates

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 5.36Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 39.91Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.6 ±16.3

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 2.9Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 70.15Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 90.7Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10219, 3502, 4118

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10219, 3502, 4118

Auto

34.7 29%

Teleop

57.1 47%

Endgame

28.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2797, 7130, 4576

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2797, 7130, 4576

Auto

13.0 8%

Teleop

96.5 59%

Endgame

54.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.6pts

Blue projected score163.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: 90–196
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.7Season APEX339.6

34.7Auto13

57.1Teleop96.5

28.9Endgame54.8

15Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	34
teleop	53	58
endgame	47	39
foul	5	0
total	113	131

Result

Final score

113 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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