Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

386.12 – 173.35

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.5 ±15.2

9698Zipbombs of BGCNF

Provisional

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 7.59Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 149.3Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 229.23Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.2 ±16.8

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 127.26Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 26.6Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9720Metal Head Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 19.49Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9698, 6647, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9698, 6647, 2992

Auto

82.7 22%

Teleop

228.0 60%

Endgame

70.9 19%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 386, 8753, 9720

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 8753, 9720

Auto

18.8 11%

Teleop

96.8 55%

Endgame

59.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score386.1pts

Blue projected score173.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212.8
Score range: 141–418
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 175.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.5Season APEX348.2

82.7Auto18.8

228Teleop96.8

70.9Endgame59.5

24Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	37
teleop	209	69
endgame	61	34
foul	0	0
total	354	140

Result

Final score

354 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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