Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.67 – 247.44

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 78.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.5 ±17.2

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 89.01Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9493TechWasps923

Provisional

Season APEX 19.2Event APEX -1.32Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 41.98Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389 ±12.9

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 176.94Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 57Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 13.5Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4013, 9493, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4013, 9493, 8324

Auto

35.1 29%

Teleop

96.3 78%

Endgame

-8.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 233, 5472, 4622

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 5472, 4622

Auto

24.2 10%

Teleop

138.2 58%

Endgame

73.9 31%

Strengths

· 233 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.7pts

Blue projected score247.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.8
Score range: 99–278
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 173.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.5Season APEX389

35.1Auto24.2

96.3Teleop138.2

-8.7Endgame73.9

147Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	21
teleop	152	123
endgame	66	88
foul	15	0
total	271	232

Result

Final score

271 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 78.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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