Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.37 – 164.67

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.6 ±14.5

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 110.19Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 76.31Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 8.87Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±17.3

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 21.53Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 138.56Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3502Octo(PI)Rates

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 4.58Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8841, 10219, 10228

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8841, 10219, 10228

Auto

35.0 18%

Teleop

106.1 55%

Endgame

52.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7431, 386, 3502

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7431, 386, 3502

Auto

27.6 17%

Teleop

98.1 59%

Endgame

41.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.4pts

Blue projected score164.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 128–232
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 206.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.6Season APEX349.4

35Auto27.6

106.1Teleop98.1

52.9Endgame41.1

58Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	22
teleop	88	108
endgame	60	56
foul	0	0
total	187	186

Result

Final score

187 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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