Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.91 – 121.75

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±18.8

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 65.92Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6145War Eagles

Provisional

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 8.36Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4179Tahisco Techs

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 20.63Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.1 ±17.2

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 89.61Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 33.92Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9627Yellow Haze

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -1.78Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6184, 6145, 4179

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6184, 6145, 4179

Auto

8.3 10%

Teleop

38.6 45%

Endgame

39.2 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8841, 21, 9627

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8841, 21, 9627

Auto

19.5 16%

Teleop

51.8 42%

Endgame

51.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score121.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.8
Score range: 64–153
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.2Season APEX273.1

8.3Auto19.5

38.6Teleop51.8

39.2Endgame51.1

16Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	24
teleop	86	82
endgame	45	38
foul	0	0
total	140	144

Result

Final score

140 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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