Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.39 – 55.86

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 62.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.6 ±18.2

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 63.02Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3242ILLUMICATS

Provisional

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 49.75Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 30.62Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.2 ±14.5

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 42.87Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -8.28Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 21.27Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7431, 3242, 3164

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7431, 3242, 3164

Auto

32.5 22%

Teleop

80.9 56%

Endgame

31.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5276, 5816, 6473

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5276, 5816, 6473

Auto

15.8 28%

Teleop

21.9 38%

Endgame

19.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.4pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.5
Score range: 24–175
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 177.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.6Season APEX200.2

32.5Auto15.8

80.9Teleop21.9

31.3Endgame19.2

2Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	10	33
endgame	12	32
foul	0	0
total	40	78

Result

Final score

40 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 62.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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