Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.82 – 342.5

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.2 ±16.9

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 0.3Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 113.07Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3502Octo(PI)Rates

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX -6.55Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.7 ±11.7

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 80.64Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 107.26Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 154.6Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2797, 364, 3502

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2797, 364, 3502

Auto

24.8 23%

Teleop

69.9 64%

Endgame

15.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 86, 744, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.5 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 86, 744, 4065

Auto

31.0 9%

Teleop

212.6 63%

Endgame

93.9 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.8pts

Blue projected score342.5pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -235.7
Score range: 75–375
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 175.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.2Season APEX535.7

24.8Auto31

69.9Teleop212.6

15.1Endgame93.9

50Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	49
teleop	102	189
endgame	35	97
foul	0	0
total	175	335

Result

Final score

175 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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