Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.77 – 215.78

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246 ±15

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 25.87Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 96.54Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 64.36Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.5 ±15.1

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -13.15Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 72.66Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 156.27Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10228, 4576, 9313

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10228, 4576, 9313

Auto

22.9 13%

Teleop

96.4 54%

Endgame

59.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10981, 7130, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10981, 7130, 6647

Auto

57.4 26%

Teleop

93.0 42%

Endgame

68.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186.8pts

Blue projected score215.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 155–248
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 176.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246Season APEX470.5

22.9Auto57.4

96.4Teleop93

59.6Endgame68.9

126Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	25
teleop	75	106
endgame	55	44
foul	0	0
total	142	175

Result

Final score

142 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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