Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.09 – 166.57

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.7 ±15.6

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 18.42Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 216.48Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 29.19Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290 ±15.6

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 68.03Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4179Tahisco Techs

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 3.65Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 94.89Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 21, 2992, 4118

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 21, 2992, 4118

Auto

40.6 15%

Teleop

150.3 56%

Endgame

77.1 29%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8841, 4179, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8841, 4179, 5410

Auto

17.4 11%

Teleop

97.0 60%

Endgame

46.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.1pts

Blue projected score166.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.5
Score range: 136–295
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 173.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.7Season APEX290

40.6Auto17.4

150.3Teleop97

77.1Endgame46.6

69Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	33
teleop	184	117
endgame	81	92
foul	10	0
total	330	242

Result

Final score

330 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree