Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.35 – 85.26

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.8 ±14.5

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 89.2Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 1.47Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 24.68Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±17.7

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 38.22Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9627Yellow Haze

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -4.6Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 51.64Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4013, 4622, 8753

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4013, 4622, 8753

Auto

17.6 17%

Teleop

51.2 50%

Endgame

34.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3164, 9627, 801

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3164, 9627, 801

Auto

32.9 39%

Teleop

35.2 42%

Endgame

15.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.4pts

Blue projected score85.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.1
Score range: 53–147
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 175.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.8Season APEX234.8

17.6Auto32.9

51.2Teleop35.2

34.4Endgame15.4

102Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	12
teleop	97	52
endgame	2	0
foul	5	0
total	138	64

Result

Final score

138 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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