Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.41 – 214.39

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.8 ±19.8

6145War Eagles

Provisional

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 17.35Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 23.01Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10159PHS MAC-ros

Provisional

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 34.05Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.3 ±16.8

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 154.02Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9698Zipbombs of BGCNF

Provisional

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX -6.13Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 66.5Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6145, 6473, 10159

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6145, 6473, 10159

Auto

14.7 19%

Teleop

27.8 36%

Endgame

35.3 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 233, 9698, 10219

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 9698, 10219

Auto

36.8 18%

Teleop

137.2 67%

Endgame

31.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.4pts

Blue projected score214.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140
Score range: 42–246
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 175.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.8Season APEX401.3

14.7Auto36.8

27.8Teleop137.2

35.3Endgame31.6

39Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	47
teleop	17	165
endgame	15	73
foul	0	0
total	49	285

Result

Final score

49 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 48 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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