Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.07 – 138.84

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 67.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.6 ±17.7

9493TechWasps923

Provisional

Season APEX 19.2Event APEX 20Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 54.83Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 74.24Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.1 ±15.9

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 45.27Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 109.68Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10996SRC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -16.11Rank 45Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9493, 5276, 6184

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9493, 5276, 6184

Auto

27.9 20%

Teleop

93.7 68%

Endgame

17.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5472, 386, 10996

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5472, 386, 10996

Auto

11.0 8%

Teleop

72.6 54%

Endgame

50.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.1pts

Blue projected score138.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.2
Score range: 107–181
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 176.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.6Season APEX342.1

27.9Auto11

93.7Teleop72.6

17.1Endgame50.4

86Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	25
teleop	41	112
endgame	27	79
foul	5	0
total	91	216

Result

Final score

91 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 67.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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