Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.69 – 184.07

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.8 ±16.4

3242ILLUMICATS

Provisional

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 64.55Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 83.3Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 111.84Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.7 ±19.3

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 92.21Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10471Gamarobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 19.01Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 72.85Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3242, 86, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3242, 86, 364

Auto

23.7 9%

Teleop

158.2 60%

Endgame

82.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6722, 10471, 7130

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6722, 10471, 7130

Auto

22.7 12%

Teleop

113.2 61%

Endgame

49.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score259.7pts

Blue projected score184.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.6
Score range: 153–291
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.8Season APEX283.7

23.7Auto22.7

158.2Teleop113.2

82Endgame49.1

40Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	14
teleop	134	103
endgame	46	68
foul	0	15
total	254	200

Result

Final score

254 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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