Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.2 – 79.46

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.2 ±13.5

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 33.45Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 16.02Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 114.73Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±15

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 26.03Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2797Knight & Nerdy

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 20.02Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 33.41Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 21, 10981, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 21, 10981, 5410

Auto

30.6 18%

Teleop

66.5 39%

Endgame

71.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8324, 2797, 10228

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8324, 2797, 10228

Auto

14.6 19%

Teleop

36.2 46%

Endgame

28.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score79.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.7
Score range: 47–196
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 178.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.2Season APEX254

30.6Auto14.6

66.5Teleop36.2

71.6Endgame28.1

130Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	27	37
endgame	25	12
foul	0	0
total	76	62

Result

Final score

76 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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