Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.74 – 161.2

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 100 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.4 ±14.5

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 71.4Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 159.19Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 34.15Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.9 ±19

4179Tahisco Techs

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 6.4Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10159PHS MAC-ros

Provisional

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 37.04Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 117.76Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3164, 108, 4622

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3164, 108, 4622

Auto

53.5 21%

Teleop

145.6 56%

Endgame

61.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4179, 10159, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4179, 10159, 744

Auto

29.1 18%

Teleop

106.4 67%

Endgame

23.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.7pts

Blue projected score161.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.5
Score range: 128–298
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 182.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.4Season APEX219.9

53.5Auto29.1

145.6Teleop106.4

61.4Endgame23.6

65Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	12
teleop	10	78
endgame	1	37
foul	15	0
total	99	127

Result

Final score

99 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 100 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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