Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.81 – 132.46

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 55.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.6 ±16.4

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 76.58Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 59.46Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9698Zipbombs of BGCNF

Provisional

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX -6.23Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.3 ±17

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 63.31Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX -8.47Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 77.62Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6184, 5472, 9698

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6184, 5472, 9698

Auto

7.9 6%

Teleop

92.1 70%

Endgame

31.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4118, 10162, 7431

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4118, 10162, 7431

Auto

35.2 25%

Teleop

68.5 48%

Endgame

39.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.8pts

Blue projected score132.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.7
Score range: 98–164
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 180.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.6Season APEX380.3

7.9Auto35.2

92.1Teleop68.5

31Endgame39.1

30Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	10
teleop	57	18
endgame	6	17
foul	30	0
total	107	45

Result

Final score

107 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 55.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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