Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.98 – 202.25

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.8 ±14.5

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -17.04Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 62.52Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 102.5Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.9 ±19

6145War Eagles

Provisional

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 22.52Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 142.83Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3242ILLUMICATS

Provisional

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 36.9Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10981, 9313, 386

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10981, 9313, 386

Auto

29.8 20%

Teleop

94.1 64%

Endgame

23.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6145, 233, 3242

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6145, 233, 3242

Auto

38.0 19%

Teleop

115.3 57%

Endgame

49.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148pts

Blue projected score202.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.3
Score range: 115–235
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 180.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.8Season APEX352.9

29.8Auto38

94.1Teleop115.3

23.9Endgame49

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	16
teleop	89	136
endgame	65	90
foul	0	0
total	191	242

Result

Final score

191 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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