Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.48 – 123.04

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.3 ±16.6

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 105.71Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 54.76Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10471Gamarobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 10.01Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.4 ±13.3

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 23.82Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 30.85Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 68.37Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 4622, 10471

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 4622, 10471

Auto

25.8 15%

Teleop

88.4 52%

Endgame

56.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 21, 10219, 5816

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 21, 10219, 5816

Auto

29.8 23%

Teleop

50.1 39%

Endgame

47.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.5pts

Blue projected score123pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.4
Score range: 91–202
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 179.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.3Season APEX248.4

25.8Auto29.8

88.4Teleop50.1

56.4Endgame47

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	30
teleop	105	34
endgame	59	27
foul	15	0
total	194	91

Result

Final score

194 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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