Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.02 – 125.91

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 3.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.4 ±15.6

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 86.46Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 105.11Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 43.45Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.3 ±17.7

10159PHS MAC-ros

Provisional

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 14.13Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 25.95Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 85.83Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4576, 5410, 4118

/ 100 compat

Projected

235 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4576, 5410, 4118

Auto

26.7 12%

Teleop

122.8 54%

Endgame

79.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10159, 4622, 86

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10159, 4622, 86

Auto

34.1 29%

Teleop

44.6 37%

Endgame

40.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score235pts

Blue projected score125.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.1
Score range: 89–272
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 206.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.4Season APEX245.3

26.7Auto34.1

122.8Teleop44.6

79.4Endgame40.8

57Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	29
teleop	150	58
endgame	62	38
foul	0	0
total	241	125

Result

Final score

241 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 3.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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