Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.53 – 177.51

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.3 ±15.9

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 104.72Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 77.82Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9720Metal Head Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX -7.01Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.1 ±14.5

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 44.84Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10228Phoenix Robotics

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 48.31Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 84.36Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 233, 364, 9720

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 233, 364, 9720

Auto

32.6 19%

Teleop

85.1 49%

Endgame

56.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 801, 10228, 6184

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 801, 10228, 6184

Auto

31.7 19%

Teleop

109.7 65%

Endgame

26.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175.5pts

Blue projected score177.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2
Score range: 145–209
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 173.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.3Season APEX251.1

32.6Auto31.7

85.1Teleop109.7

56.5Endgame26.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	13
teleop	226	73
endgame	62	57
foul	5	5
total	324	148

Result

Final score

324 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 89 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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