Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.81 – 108.63

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 82.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.5 ±13.4

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 104.4Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 71.8Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 44.61Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.9 ±17.7

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 77.21Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6473Rock Star Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 26.27Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10996SRC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 5.15Rank 45Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 744, 6722, 386

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 6722, 386

Auto

33.9 16%

Teleop

136.7 63%

Endgame

45.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4576, 6473, 10996

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4576, 6473, 10996

Auto

26.2 24%

Teleop

57.0 52%

Endgame

27.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score220.8pts

Blue projected score108.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.2
Score range: 78–252
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 170.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.5Season APEX212.9

33.9Auto26.2

136.7Teleop57

45Endgame27.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	17
teleop	239	37
endgame	77	29
foul	0	0
total	360	83

Result

Final score

360 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 82.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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