Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.64 – 91.23

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

43 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.8 ±17

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 75.63Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4179Tahisco Techs

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 27.34Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX 44.67Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.2 ±22

9493TechWasps923

Provisional

Season APEX 19.2Event APEX 4.91Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3502Octo(PI)Rates

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 44.26Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6145War Eagles

Provisional

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 42.06Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5276, 4179, 10162

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5276, 4179, 10162

Auto

29.5 20%

Teleop

69.3 48%

Endgame

45.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9493, 3502, 6145

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9493, 3502, 6145

Auto

25.5 31%

Teleop

40.5 49%

Endgame

17.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.6pts

Blue projected score91.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.4
Score range: 59–180
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 73 vs event baseline 179.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.8Season APEX145.2

29.5Auto25.5

69.3Teleop40.5

45.6Endgame17.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	11	4
endgame	17	11
foul	0	0
total	43	30

Result

Final score

43 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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