Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.25 – 72.07

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

394 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 125.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.7 ±12.4

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 68.02Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7431Wingspan

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 42.7Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 86.53Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.8 ±17.7

3242ILLUMICATS

Provisional

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX -0.56Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 48.66Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4622CAT 5

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 23.97Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 108, 7431, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 108, 7431, 6647

Auto

29.5 15%

Teleop

119.3 60%

Endgame

51.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3242, 21, 4622

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3242, 21, 4622

Auto

10.2 14%

Teleop

35.7 49%

Endgame

27.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.3pts

Blue projected score72.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.2
Score range: 41–228
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 173.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.7Season APEX232.8

29.5Auto10.2

119.3Teleop35.7

51.3Endgame27.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	26
teleop	245	45
endgame	59	56
foul	0	0
total	394	127

Result

Final score

394 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 125.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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