Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.1 – 127.46

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.1 ±18.8

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 38.59Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 14.37Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9627Yellow Haze

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 83.14Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±13.3

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 18.92Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 93.23Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 15.31Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10219, 7130, 9627

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10219, 7130, 9627

Auto

22.7 16%

Teleop

73.8 52%

Endgame

44.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 86, 5816, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 86, 5816, 8324

Auto

23.3 18%

Teleop

91.8 72%

Endgame

13.2 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.1pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.6
Score range: 95–168
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 178.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.1Season APEX321.1

22.7Auto23.3

73.8Teleop91.8

44.2Endgame13.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	23
teleop	46	45
endgame	34	27
foul	0	0
total	112	95

Result

Final score

112 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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