Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.51 – 159.53

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 104 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.2 ±15.6

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 37.86Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4118Roaring Riptide

Provisional

Season APEX 113.7Event APEX 52.2Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 11.45Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.2 ±16.9

9720Metal Head Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 35.31Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 53.36Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 70.86Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 364, 4118, 8753

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 364, 4118, 8753

Auto

17.7 18%

Teleop

56.0 56%

Endgame

27.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9720, 10981, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9720, 10981, 5472

Auto

27.7 17%

Teleop

86.6 54%

Endgame

46.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.5pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58
Score range: 69–193
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 183.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.2Season APEX261.2

17.7Auto27.7

56Teleop86.6

27.1Endgame46.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	14
teleop	126	4
endgame	48	30
foul	0	0
total	198	48

Result

Final score

198 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 104 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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