Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.82 – 206

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 251

Prediction missed · off by 127.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.8 ±13.4

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 47.14Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 44.41Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 49.27Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.1 ±16.2

6145War Eagles

Provisional

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 47.14Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 100.86Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 58Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 744, 3164, 233

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 3164, 233

Auto

22.9 16%

Teleop

88.2 63%

Endgame

29.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6145, 2992, 5276

/ 100 compat

Projected

206 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6145, 2992, 5276

Auto

32.3 16%

Teleop

136.6 67%

Endgame

35.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.8pts

Blue projected score206pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.2
Score range: 109–238
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 601 vs event baseline 176.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.8Season APEX404.1

22.9Auto32.3

88.2Teleop136.6

29.7Endgame35.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	62
teleop	201	119
endgame	98	70
foul	0	0
total	350	251

Result

Final score

350 – 251

Prediction missed · off by 127.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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