Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.24 – 155.95

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.8 ±16.8

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 53.14Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 50.24Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9698Zipbombs of BGCNF

Provisional

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 44.86Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262 ±16.9

3502Octo(PI)Rates

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 53.14Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6722LED Robotics

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 41.14Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 61.67Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 386, 801, 9698

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 801, 9698

Auto

23.0 16%

Teleop

87.5 59%

Endgame

37.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3502, 6722, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

156 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3502, 6722, 5410

Auto

15.0 10%

Teleop

91.5 59%

Endgame

49.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.2pts

Blue projected score156pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.7
Score range: 116–188
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.8Season APEX262

23Auto15

87.5Teleop91.5

37.8Endgame49.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	39
teleop	92	112
endgame	15	44
foul	5	5
total	147	200

Result

Final score

147 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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