Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.04 – 266.86

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.4 ±18.4

431PinkZilla

Provisional

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 30.68Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 59.42Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5993Istech Robotics Society

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 84.94Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.2 ±11

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 108.4Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 134.59Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 23.87Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 431, 233, 5993

/ 100 compat

Projected

175 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 431, 233, 5993

Auto

33.5 19%

Teleop

91.4 53%

Endgame

47.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3932, 8159, 5816

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3932, 8159, 5816

Auto

50.3 21%

Teleop

142.1 58%

Endgame

50.6 21%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175pts

Blue projected score266.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.8
Score range: 154–288
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.4Season APEX545.2

33.5Auto50.3

91.4Teleop142.1

47Endgame50.6

80Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	57
teleop	68	163
endgame	30	67
foul	0	15
total	132	302

Result

Final score

132 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Match videos

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