Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.09 – 196.54

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

462 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.4 ±11

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 237.17Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 21.43Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 150.49Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.7 ±15.3

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 77.8Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 22.17Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 96.57Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 9404, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 9404, 179

Auto

81.7 20%

Teleop

229.3 56%

Endgame

96.3 24%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 386, 10211, 8841

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 10211, 8841

Auto

35.3 18%

Teleop

116.0 60%

Endgame

43.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score409.1pts

Blue projected score196.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212.6
Score range: 176–430
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 667 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.4Season APEX382.7

81.7Auto35.3

229.3Teleop116

96.3Endgame43.6

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	42
teleop	245	118
endgame	108	40
foul	0	5
total	462	205

Result

Final score

462 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Match videos

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