Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.45 – 143.95

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.9 ±16

4024TechnoSaints

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 14.29Rank 35Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 47.21Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 53.95Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±12.8

801Horsepower

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 59.03Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10219Bathtub Chickens

Season APEX 109.5Event APEX 37.61Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 47.31Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4024, 1902, 86

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4024, 1902, 86

Auto

25.0 23%

Teleop

47.1 43%

Endgame

37.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 801, 10219, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 801, 10219, 5410

Auto

43.0 29%

Teleop

78.2 53%

Endgame

25.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.5pts

Blue projected score144pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 94–165
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.9Season APEX320.8

25Auto43

47.1Teleop78.2

37.7Endgame25.1

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	49
teleop	52	99
endgame	53	12
foul	0	0
total	126	160

Result

Final score

126 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Match videos

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