Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.25 – 206.41

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.9 ±13.9

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 29.28Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 42.82Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 16.15Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.1 ±12.8

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 96.75Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 55.66Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 54Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 744, 1592, 3164

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 1592, 3164

Auto

17.5 21%

Teleop

41.4 50%

Endgame

24.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8817, 5842, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 5842, 8324

Auto

28.0 14%

Teleop

125.8 63%

Endgame

45.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.3pts

Blue projected score206.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.2
Score range: 67–227
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.9Season APEX356.1

17.5Auto28

41.4Teleop125.8

24Endgame45.4

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	39
teleop	57	138
endgame	42	49
foul	0	5
total	120	231

Result

Final score

120 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Match videos

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