Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.38 – 111.14

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.4 ±18.4

431PinkZilla

Provisional

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 34.95Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 63.77Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5993Istech Robotics Society

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 88.66Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.9 ±16

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 45.5Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

86Team Resistance

Season APEX 141.4Event APEX 53.89Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4024TechnoSaints

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 11.75Rank 35Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 431, 233, 5993

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 431, 233, 5993

Auto

32.6 18%

Teleop

98.1 54%

Endgame

52.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1902, 86, 4024

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1902, 86, 4024

Auto

22.5 21%

Teleop

50.4 47%

Endgame

34.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.4pts

Blue projected score111.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.2
Score range: 90–208
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.4Season APEX374.9

32.6Auto22.5

98.1Teleop50.4

52.2Endgame34.8

69Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	33
teleop	77	36
endgame	40	44
foul	0	10
total	156	123

Result

Final score

156 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Match videos

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