Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.08 – 213.59

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.7 ±15.3

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 76.94Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 20.49Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 93.65Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.1 ±12.8

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 97.39Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 57.35Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 58.85Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 386, 10211, 8841

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 10211, 8841

Auto

39.0 21%

Teleop

107.6 57%

Endgame

43.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8817, 5842, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 5842, 8324

Auto

21.1 10%

Teleop

130.7 61%

Endgame

61.1 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191.1pts

Blue projected score213.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.5
Score range: 171–234
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 112.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.7Season APEX356.1

39Auto21.1

107.6Teleop130.7

43.3Endgame61.1

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	46
teleop	131	112
endgame	43	7
foul	0	25
total	202	190

Result

Final score

202 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 17.3 pts

Match videos

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