Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.81 – 91.7

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

430 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.4 ±11

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 235.75Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 16.03Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 147.03Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.9 ±13.9

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX 29.09Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 44.68Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 17.93Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 9404, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 9404, 179

Auto

78.5 20%

Teleop

232.1 58%

Endgame

87.7 22%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 744, 1592, 3164

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 744, 1592, 3164

Auto

20.1 23%

Teleop

49.3 55%

Endgame

19.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score398.8pts

Blue projected score91.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 307.1
Score range: 72–419
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 111.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.4Season APEX340.9

78.5Auto20.1

232.1Teleop49.3

87.7Endgame19.7

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	11
teleop	216	20
endgame	118	40
foul	5	15
total	430	86

Result

Final score

430 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Match videos

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