Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.46 – 206.51

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.2 ±11

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 111.78Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 138.98Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 28.7Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.7 ±15.3

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 79.72Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 25.54Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 101.25Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3932, 8159, 5816

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3932, 8159, 5816

Auto

54.3 21%

Teleop

152.7 58%

Endgame

54.7 21%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 386, 10211, 8841

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 10211, 8841

Auto

42.4 21%

Teleop

112.6 55%

Endgame

48.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score279.5pts

Blue projected score206.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.9
Score range: 184–302
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.2Season APEX382.7

54.3Auto42.4

152.7Teleop112.6

54.7Endgame48.5

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	65
teleop	169	73
endgame	78	52
foul	0	10
total	323	200

Result

Final score

323 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Match videos

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