Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.77 – 201.5

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.1 ±12.8

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 99.78Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 58.01Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 53.98Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.7 ±15.3

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 78.06Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10211Cyber Colts

Season APEX 56Event APEX 23.76Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 99.68Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8817, 5842, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 5842, 8324

Auto

32.4 16%

Teleop

126.3 61%

Endgame

47.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 386, 10211, 8841

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 386, 10211, 8841

Auto

41.0 21%

Teleop

113.8 57%

Endgame

45.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score211.8pts

Blue projected score201.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.3
Score range: 180–234
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 124.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.1Season APEX382.7

32.4Auto41

126.3Teleop113.8

47.6Endgame45

20Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	50
teleop	89	106
endgame	63	67
foul	5	10
total	188	233

Result

Final score

188 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 27.6 pts

Match videos

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