Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

422.15 – 274.96

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

432 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.4 ±11

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 240.92Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 25.92Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 155.31Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.2 ±11

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 110.49Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 137.36Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 27.11Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 9404, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 9404, 179

Auto

87.8 21%

Teleop

234.0 56%

Endgame

99.1 24%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3932, 8159, 5816

/ 100 compat

Projected

275 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3932, 8159, 5816

Auto

52.2 21%

Teleop

146.8 58%

Endgame

54.1 21%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score422.2pts

Blue projected score275pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.2
Score range: 253–444
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 730 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.4Season APEX545.2

87.8Auto52.2

234Teleop146.8

99.1Endgame54.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	63
teleop	237	178
endgame	98	57
foul	0	0
total	432	298

Result

Final score

432 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Match videos

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