Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.12 – 212.05

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.4 ±18.4

431PinkZilla

Provisional

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 27.65Rank 20Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 55.89Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5993Istech Robotics Society

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 81.58Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.1 ±12.8

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 99.47Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 58Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 54.58Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 431, 233, 5993

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 431, 233, 5993

Auto

33.1 20%

Teleop

86.5 53%

Endgame

43.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8817, 5842, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8817, 5842, 8324

Auto

30.6 15%

Teleop

128.6 63%

Endgame

46.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.1pts

Blue projected score212.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.9
Score range: 143–234
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.4Season APEX356.1

33.1Auto30.6

86.5Teleop128.6

43.1Endgame46.2

89Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	41
teleop	11	115
endgame	16	53
foul	20	0
total	87	209

Result

Final score

87 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Match videos

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