Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

49.88 – 49.88

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.7 ±17.3

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX -Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8057All Wired Up

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX -Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

744Shark Attack

Season APEX 150.1Event APEX -Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.8 ±20

11222STAXX, Sponsored by NASA

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX -Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5842Royal Robotics

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX -Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11363Pickle Squad

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX -Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1744, 8057, 744

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1744, 8057, 744

Auto

15.0 30%

Teleop

24.9 50%

Endgame

10.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11222, 5842, 11363

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11222, 5842, 11363

Auto

15.0 30%

Teleop

24.9 50%

Endgame

10.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.9pts

Blue projected score49.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 32–68
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 90 vs event baseline 99.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.7Season APEX194.8

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	10
teleop	40	3
endgame	21	3
foul	0	0
total	74	16

Result

Final score

74 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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