Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.71 – 50.71

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 72 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±18.2

9300Olympians

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX -Rank 56Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX -Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX -Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±16.9

9160YAL THUNDERS

Provisional

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX -Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX -Rank 10Record 5-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9300, 7072, 10981

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9300, 7072, 10981

Auto

15.2 30%

Teleop

25.4 50%

Endgame

10.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9160, 7717, 8817

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9160, 7717, 8817

Auto

15.2 30%

Teleop

25.4 50%

Endgame

10.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.7pts

Blue projected score50.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 33–69
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 101.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205Season APEX409

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	28
teleop	8	86
endgame	0	46
foul	0	0
total	16	160

Result

Final score

16 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 72 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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