Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.05 – 243.15

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±17.7

5145WolfBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -22.39Rank 52Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7717Steam Punks

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 26.09Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8841OTTER

Season APEX 127.7Event APEX 84.35Rank 5Record 6-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382 ±16.9

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 229.65Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10017GPS Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 4.07Rank 57Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3164Stealth Tigers

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 9.43Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5145, 7717, 8841

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5145, 7717, 8841

Auto

22.5 26%

Teleop

49.7 58%

Endgame

13.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 180, 10017, 3164

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 10017, 3164

Auto

68.1 28%

Teleop

131.6 55%

Endgame

39.6 17%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.1pts

Blue projected score243.2pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.1
Score range: 68–263
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 109.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.8Season APEX382

22.5Auto68.1

49.7Teleop131.6

13.5Endgame39.6

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	51
teleop	91	198
endgame	41	69
foul	10	0
total	169	318

Result

Final score

169 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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