Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.85 – 213.52

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.2 ±16.4

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 57.63Rank 19Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

21ComBBAT

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 10.98Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11222STAXX, Sponsored by NASA

Provisional

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 27.24Rank 47Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.9 ±13.5

10981Jo-Bees

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 13.17Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 146.84Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8324MECO Robotics

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 53.51Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5410, 21, 11222

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5410, 21, 11222

Auto

26.7 27%

Teleop

55.2 55%

Endgame

18.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10981, 179, 8324

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10981, 179, 8324

Auto

32.3 15%

Teleop

130.9 62%

Endgame

47.5 23%

Strengths

· 179 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.9pts

Blue projected score213.5pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.7
Score range: 77–233
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 107.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.2Season APEX415.9

26.7Auto32.3

55.2Teleop130.9

18Endgame47.5

6Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	14
teleop	22	157
endgame	21	76
foul	0	0
total	68	247

Result

Final score

68 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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